Predicting the Monthly Average Price (LE/KG) For Egyptian Broiler Farms (2019–2022) Using Auto regressive Integrated-Moving-Average (ARIMA) Model

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Animal Wealth Development Department, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Zagazig University, 44511 Egypt

2 Veterinarian at Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Zagazig University, 44511, Zagazig, Egypt

Abstract

 Auto regressive Integrated-Moving-Average model (ARIMA) was employed to detect the monthly average price (LE/Kg) for broiler farms in Egypt during the period from September 2019 to December 2022. On the basis of the lowest Akaike's Information Criterion AIC value, the best suitable model was carefully chosen. It consists of Moving Average Process (MAP), the- Autoregressive Process (AR), and the Dif-021ferencing Process (d). Identification model, estimation parameter, check diagnostic, and fore-casting make up the four steps of the Box: Jenkins technique for time series analysis and modeling. For last four months of 2022, the best accurate model to forecast the monthly average price (LE/Kg) for Egyptian broiler farms is the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model. The % values were 25.25 LE/Kg (2.46) in September, 24.58 LE/Kg (4.33) in October, 24.61 LE/Kg (4.23) in November, and 25.32 LE/Kg (4.11) in December. The policy makers can consider the prices of feedstuffs and one-day-old chicks to maintain the food security margin by using the monthly average price (LE/Kg) for broiler farms in Egypt (2019–2022) that was estimated and anticipated using the ARIMA model using Univariate historical data.

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